Exam Pass Probability Calculator illustration

Exam Pass Probability Calculator

Tell it how many questions the exam has, how many you actually know, how many answer options each question offers and the pass mark. On unknowns you can say how many wrong answers you can already rule out (so a guess is among fewer choices). Optional section mode requires passing each part separately. With negative marking, the tool also says whether guessing is worth it in expectation.

Questions you know are split as evenly as possible across sections.
Each section has its own size and how many you know cold.
On questions you do not know: how many wrong choices can you eliminate before guessing?
In section modes this % applies to each section.
Negative marking: points deducted for each wrong answer; each correct answer is worth 1 point.

Notes

  • Without negative marking, guessing always has positive expected value — never leave a question blank.
  • With penalty p and r options left, a random guess is worth 1/r − p(r−1)/r points on average. Ruling out wrong answers raises 1/r.
  • Section mode multiplies the pass chances: you pass the exam only if every section clears its own pass mark.
  • Equal-sections mode splits your “known” count across sections as evenly as possible — a simple planning assumption, not a claim about how marks are clustered.

Explore the idea

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