Knowledge Tracing Simulator
Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is how intelligent tutoring systems (Khan Academy-style mastery learning, ASSISTments, cognitive tutors) decide whether you have learned a skill. A hidden state — known or not known — evolves with a learning probability p(T); observed answers are noisy through guessing p(G) and slipping p(S). Watch the system update its mastery estimate after every answer; a step-by-step panel plugs the percentages into Bayes' rule so you can see why a correct guess barely moves the estimate and a slip can crash it. Tune the four parameters to understand why some tutors ask for three correct answers in a row before moving on.
Runs 100% in your browser — simulations are computed locally on your device.
Read the full guide to this tool
Notes
- The posterior update is plain Bayes' rule: a correct answer raises the mastery estimate more when guessing is unlikely; a slip can wrongly crater it. The panel lists prior → likelihoods → evidence → posterior → learning transition for every attempt.
- With high p(G) (easy multiple choice), mastery estimates rise slowly — the system cannot tell knowledge from luck, which is why good items matter more than good algorithms.
- Runs 100% in your browser — nothing you type or practice leaves your device.
Explore the idea
Related tools
Spaced Repetition Simulator
SM-2, FSRS, HLR, Leitner and Pimsleur side by side — workload, retention and knowledge per study hour.
Flashcard Workload Planner
How many daily reviews will your Anki deck really cost — vacation strategies, easy days, exam pacing, SM-2 vs FSRS.
Forgetting Curve Visualizer
Ebbinghaus curve with a sweet-spot band — drag reviews early, on time, or late and watch the decay flatten.
Final Grade Calculator
What do you need on the final exam to reach your target grade? Instant answer for any weight.
GPA Calculator
Compute your GPA from course grades and credits — or ask what term GPA you need to hit a cumulative goal.
Math Worksheet Generator
Printable worksheets: arithmetic, fractions, algebra, order of ops, decimals, mixed numbers and percents.