Sequence of Returns Risk (Historical Cohorts)
Replays your retirement plan through every actual US market cohort since 1928: each starting year gets the real sequence of S&P 500 total returns, 10-year Treasury returns and CPI inflation that followed it. Two retirees with the same average return can end up worlds apart — the one who hits a bear market early, while withdrawals are eating the depleted base, may never recover. The tool reports the share of historical cohorts that survived your withdrawal rate, which starting years failed and when, and the spread between the worst, median and best outcomes in inflation-adjusted terms.
Read the full guide to this tool
Results
Notes
- Sequence risk: the order of returns matters once you withdraw — early losses are locked in by the withdrawals, while early gains build a cushion.
- The “4% rule” comes from Bengen (1994), who found 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawals survived every historical 30-year US cohort — this tool recreates that experiment.
- Historical US data 1928–2023 (Damodaran/NYU Stern return series, BLS CPI); the US was the best-performing market of that century, and the past does not bind the future.
- Withdrawals are taken at the start of each year; balances and terminal values are shown in starting-year purchasing power.
- This is an educational estimate, not financial advice; talk to a qualified adviser before making money decisions.
Related tools
FIRE Calculator
Your FIRE number and years to independence.
Financial Life Simulator
Simulate your whole financial life 1,000 times — career, house, kids, retirement — and see the range of outcomes.
Retirement Savings Calculator
Balance at retirement and the income it supports.
Annuity Value Calculator
Present or future value of a payment stream.
How Long Will My Money Last?
Portfolio depletion under inflating withdrawals.
Annuity Payout Calculator
Monthly payout a lump sum can sustain.